Cuban cigar prices to explode?

[Big Al]

Sorry if this has been done chaps. But are Cuban cigar prices set to explode in about a year's time?

Take a look at this link about a third of the way down:

https://www.topcubans.com/blog/

Once the Yanks can (legally) get to smoke them demand is going to soar outa sight. Prices, I would expect, will follow.

Views?

PS: Get your stocks in soon enough I think!

[misterbulgarin]

Would certainly be interesting, I dont know much about economics and such, but how could this affect the online retailers and the non-us markets. Surely itd be business as normal for Europe & whereever?

[Big Al]

It is the question of demand I was thinking of misterbulgarin. Oh I don't doubt that loads of Yanks buy their stuff on the black market and import but a lot will not do so. I fancy that this "lot" may indeed be a LOT. If so, then demand / supply = prices will up and up.

[simonjgriffithshr]

Never mind the prices... if things are half as bad as they could be, we might not even get a sniff of a Cuban cigar... Don't the Americans smoke something like five times the entire production of Cuba per year? (I'm sure I read some scary fact like that).

We can only hope that either... a) They tire of them (and their prices), now they're no longer the 'forbidden fruit'; or... b) The Cubans half-heartedly ignore them... they can't use most of their brand names anyway, and have little trouble shifting what they can make anyway.

Maybe the Guantanameras will become the 'American' Cuban - given that no-one's ever likely to try and rip them off... :lol:

[Big Al]

Maybe the Guantanameras will become the 'American' Cuban - given that no-one's ever likely to try and rip them off... :lol:

Bloody foul things! :sick:

[misterbulgarin]

lol, I reccon it'd be like anything. Something awesome and new, novelty wears off, then its back to normal. Just look at swine flu

[SteveGriff]

i haven't read the link... but I think it will be a while before the Americans will legally be able to smoke Cubans if the shift of policy to be believed. Hopefully the Cuban "guys at the top" will adjust for demand before it did become legal. I'd be more worried about effect on quality then price change in this regard.

[cesara valverde]

This is an interesting one, but without an utterly complete knowledge of how the global market for cuban cigars operates its almost impossible to say. However this will not stop me from trying.

If Cuban imports were legalised in the US then total demand would obviously skyrocket.

Compared to NCs Cubans are relatively cheap when bought in countries with low taxes. Assuming current prices they would be cheaper in the US than NC equivalents. Demand for premium NCs in the US would slide.

This is a positive for the rest of us, as NC manufacturers would drop prices and look to export more cigars outside the US.

The negative (obviously) comes with the effect on CCs. This can take two forms: a price increase, or a quality decrease. In reality it is likely to be an unpalatable combination of the two.

Cuba may be a small island, but all tobacco production for hand-rolled CCs is in a small corner in the West. Tobacco grown elsewhere on the island goes to making machine made cigars for export, peso cigars and cigarettes.

If demand for 'Cuban' cigars were to increase dramatically, fuelled by an inexperienced market, then the cubans would almost certainly start using lower grade tobacco. Remember 99-01?

Prices will also rise, but not too dramatically, to reach a sustainable equilibirum. Even communists have their price.

Elsewhere in the world the decrease in quality will fire an interest in 'pre-post-embargo' cubans, as well as premium NCs.

The greater interest in top-quality NCs amongst connoisseurs will make anybody sitting on aged OpusX or Padrons look very clever indeed.


Speculation is fun.

[snooky]

Let the panick buying begin. !:hail:

[Big Al]

Let the panick buying begin. !:hail:

I've already started! :biggrin1:

[misterbulgarin]

Interesting , I can see 'pre-embargo' cigars being the 'in thing' if this thing comes around.

[simonjgriffithshr]

What about pre-post-embargo... :confused:

[daverave999]

I'd be more worried about effect on quality then price change in this regard.
I've considered this myself.

Assuming current prices they would be cheaper in the US than NC equivalents.
Why? Surely they would be subject to the same taxes the NCs are? Plus an import tax?

[misterbulgarin]

What about pre-post-embargo... :confused:

Have you got any? lemme buy some!

[cesara valverde]

'pre-post-embargo' was what I meant. Rather than just 'pre-embargo' which are pretty pricey already I believe.

Cubans would be more expensive in the US than premium NCs, precisely because they would be subject to the same tobacco and import taxes, but the base product is cheaper.

[PoohBore]

Roll on April next year when I'm off for 3 weeks. Supposed to be a holiday but its a cigar buying expedition with a bit of rum and sun thrown in:41: :rock:

[GoodFella]

Interesting , I can see 'pre-embargo' cigars being the 'in thing' if this thing comes around.


funny thing is, this is smothing that we in the USA have talked about. lot of people are buying any thing while others its business as usual. Prices in the USA have just gone up because of a new tax. A few dollers per cigar.

i feel that the cigars will be like the 99-01 stocks that you see for sale all the time or worse. I also think the prices will be more then the NC stuff. Kind of like getting a nice french or Italian wine compared to some Cali one. You will always pay for somthing better.

It not like the USA is not smoking cubans at all. the USA is one of the top cuban smoking countries. but for the average joe who does not know how to use the Worl Wide Web will be jumping all over this.

[yankeefan]

good post goodfella no pun intended i also live in the states and i agree the ones who know how to get c.c will always be able to so. while the new smokers will try them just to look cool.:cowboyic9:

[Broody]

I love hearing you guys panic, Fairly sure this is a few years off. Us Yanks will effect supply and demand though thats for sure when it does happen.

As someone already mentioned we have new taxes here, and there will also be an import tax. Never mind that each state has additional taxes on cigars. Some states like mine taxes are pretty hefty. The article mentions the Cohiba Robusto. This is roughly a 12.00 cigar when purchased from online vendors with no taxes. Here in the states this cigar will likely run 20.00 with all taxes applied in many states. This means most would buy 1 on occassion, but this isnt going to be a huge seller. Even at say 18.00 that means 450.00 a box. Americans in large number are not spending 450.00 on a box of cigars. I buy now and can assure that most of the people I know who buy and smoke CCs are not spending that much.

This non internet savy Joe blow is not the guy who will drop this money either.
Currently and now I and others are buying boxes and will continue to do so. If you have the money its a good idea to store up and weather the intial storm.

[whisky77]

I love hearing you guys panic, Fairly sure this is a few years off. Us Yanks will effect supply and demand though thats for sure when it does happen.

As someone already mentioned we have new taxes here, and there will also be an import tax. Never mind that each state has additional taxes on cigars. Some states like mine taxes are pretty hefty. The article mentions the Cohiba Robusto. This is roughly a 12.00 cigar when purchased from online vendors with no taxes. Here in the states this cigar will likely run 20.00 with all taxes applied in many states. This means most would buy 1 on occassion, but this isnt going to be a huge seller. Even at say 18.00 that means 450.00 a box. Americans in large number are not spending 450.00 on a box of cigars. I buy now and can assure that most of the people I know who buy and smoke CCs are not spending that much.

This non internet savy Joe blow is not the guy who will drop this money either.
Currently and now I and others are buying boxes and will continue to do so. If you have the money its a good idea to store up and weather the intial storm.

Have to agree with Broody on this one.This has been getting discussed for as long as I can remember and the legal trademarke implications alone will take years to get settled in the courts.
Your average US cigar smoker is not suddenly going to go out and start purchasing boxes of cigars at $400-$500 dollars a box just because it`s suddenly made available to him.

[simonjgriffithshr]

The article mentions the Cohiba Robusto. This is roughly a 12.00 cigar when purchased from online vendors with no taxes. Here in the states this cigar will likely run 20.00 with all taxes applied in many states.Oooooh... nice and cheap... ;) (£17 over here = approx. $28)

[Broody]

Oooooh... nice and cheap... ;) (£17 over here = approx. $28)
well as the saying goes,"in this case I guess it sucks to be you." There is little chance Americans would buy at that price on a consistent basis. Most spend 8-10 and get a good quality NC stick which while sometimes not as complex, it can be just as entertaining.

I smoke a fair amount of NC and CC now. Pepin, pete johnson, Dion/illusione are mainly what I smoke on the NC side. All are good quality sticks with a lot of flavor and strength and a decent price point. Many run the 7-12 range and that is in my state with horrid taxes. Online I can often source these same sticks for 5-8 sometimes as low as 4.00. Example I just purchased 10 Pepin JJ maduros for 42.00. To me having smoked the Cohiba Maduros:puke: there is no logic in supporting a bad stick when the JJ maduros destroy them in every category that matters to me including taste and complexity.

I may drop 20-28 on a stick once or twice a year and I am a 1 a day usually cigar smoker. Americans while often wasteful with money and credit are not going to go that far on any regular basis.

Dont get me wrong I like CCs and in some cigars they are clearly superior to NC counterparts. In some sticks I find they are not though, or it is a mood thing. I also have much more construction issues with CCs then the NCs I have listed.

Dont worry boys and girls the waves will be a little rocky when the gates open up in say two years, but after the initial storm things will calm. I know individuals like myself who can smoke most anything they want CC and NC. Many smoke both and would and will continue to even when everything is available legally.