Cuban cigar prices to explode?

[Big Al]

Sorry if this has been done chaps. But are Cuban cigar prices set to explode in about a year's time?

Take a look at this link about a third of the way down:

https://www.topcubans.com/blog/

Once the Yanks can (legally) get to smoke them demand is going to soar outa sight. Prices, I would expect, will follow.

Views?

PS: Get your stocks in soon enough I think!

[misterbulgarin]

Would certainly be interesting, I dont know much about economics and such, but how could this affect the online retailers and the non-us markets. Surely itd be business as normal for Europe & whereever?

[Big Al]

It is the question of demand I was thinking of misterbulgarin. Oh I don't doubt that loads of Yanks buy their stuff on the black market and import but a lot will not do so. I fancy that this "lot" may indeed be a LOT. If so, then demand / supply = prices will up and up.

[Simon-JG-hr]

Never mind the prices... if things are half as bad as they could be, we might not even get a sniff of a Cuban cigar... Don't the Americans smoke something like five times the entire production of Cuba per year? (I'm sure I read some scary fact like that).

We can only hope that either... a) They tire of them (and their prices), now they're no longer the 'forbidden fruit'; or... b) The Cubans half-heartedly ignore them... they can't use most of their brand names anyway, and have little trouble shifting what they can make anyway.

Maybe the Guantanameras will become the 'American' Cuban - given that no-one's ever likely to try and rip them off...

[Big Al]

Maybe the Guantanameras will become the 'American' Cuban - given that no-one's ever likely to try and rip them off...

Bloody foul things!

[misterbulgarin]

lol, I reccon it'd be like anything. Something awesome and new, novelty wears off, then its back to normal. Just look at swine flu

[SteveGriff]

i haven't read the link... but I think it will be a while before the Americans will legally be able to smoke Cubans if the shift of policy to be believed. Hopefully the Cuban "guys at the top" will adjust for demand before it did become legal. I'd be more worried about effect on quality then price change in this regard.

[cesara valverde]

This is an interesting one, but without an utterly complete knowledge of how the global market for cuban cigars operates its almost impossible to say. However this will not stop me from trying.

If Cuban imports were legalised in the US then total demand would obviously skyrocket.

Compared to NCs Cubans are relatively cheap when bought in countries with low taxes. Assuming current prices they would be cheaper in the US than NC equivalents. Demand for premium NCs in the US would slide.

This is a positive for the rest of us, as NC manufacturers would drop prices and look to export more cigars outside the US.

The negative (obviously) comes with the effect on CCs. This can take two forms: a price increase, or a quality decrease. In reality it is likely to be an unpalatable combination of the two.

Cuba may be a small island, but all tobacco production for hand-rolled CCs is in a small corner in the West. Tobacco grown elsewhere on the island goes to making machine made cigars for export, peso cigars and cigarettes.

If demand for 'Cuban' cigars were to increase dramatically, fuelled by an inexperienced market, then the cubans would almost certainly start using lower grade tobacco. Remember 99-01?

Prices will also rise, but not too dramatically, to reach a sustainable equilibirum. Even communists have their price.

Elsewhere in the world the decrease in quality will fire an interest in 'pre-post-embargo' cubans, as well as premium NCs.

The greater interest in top-quality NCs amongst connoisseurs will make anybody sitting on aged OpusX or Padrons look very clever indeed.


Speculation is fun.

[snooky]

Let the panick buying begin. !

[Big Al]

Let the panick buying begin. !

I've already started!

[misterbulgarin]

Interesting , I can see 'pre-embargo' cigars being the 'in thing' if this thing comes around.

[Simon-JG-hr]

What about pre-post-embargo...

[daverave999]

I'd be more worried about effect on quality then price change in this regard.

I've considered this myself.

Assuming current prices they would be cheaper in the US than NC equivalents.

Why? Surely they would be subject to the same taxes the NCs are? Plus an import tax?

[misterbulgarin]

What about pre-post-embargo...

Have you got any? lemme buy some!

[cesara valverde]

'pre-post-embargo' was what I meant. Rather than just 'pre-embargo' which are pretty pricey already I believe.

Cubans would be more expensive in the US than premium NCs, precisely because they would be subject to the same tobacco and import taxes, but the base product is cheaper.