Cuban cigars

[TonyN]

What do you think will happen to cuba when castro goes to them pearly gates do you think the bann will be lifted.

[tippexx]

Finally consider Cubas history with the non-aligned pact. A lot of track record against the US.

But if you look at Cuba's pre-Castro history that track record is different. And some odd things are beginning to occur, Cuba is one of the few countries that are pitching in along with the USA to try to stem the West African Ebola problem.

Florida is an important State and US politicians obviously want the expat Cuban votes. Will lifting the Embargo mean loosing Miami for either US party? I don't know. But by the same token lifting the Embargo might mean winning California.

[TJCoro]

Keep Hope Alive!

I can't see any President changing the rules for many yrs. Florida is a key state, remember Bush & chads v pregnant chads?

Partially true. Expats living in Florida tend to vote Republican. So under the above theory, no chance for change under a Republican administration. Under Obama, travel restrictions for expats were loosened along with other laws restricting general visitation to the magical island, but then it suddenly stop and hope for a full lifting of the embargo soon faded.

Still, there is hope among many puro aficionados up north for changes in the embargo over the next few years, largely depending on which party takes control of the presidency in 2016

Full Disclosure: The above comments and conclusions were drawn solely from tweets and blogs of mis amigos yankees, bless their hopeful yankee-doodle hearts.




Boy, Bag Boy

[Simon Bolivar]

As Monkey & Tippex say, no need to worry in my smoking life time anyway, if I stop buying in a few yrs & I'll still have enough to see me out. Let's not spend energy worrying about what we can't change & especially as this issue is still so contenious in the States, I can't see any President changing the rules for many yrs. Florida is a key state, remember Bush & chads v pregnant chads?

[monkey66]

I do not imagine (short of a capitalist revolution) that the US embargo will lift any time soon.

I think the embargo can only lift once the Cuban ex-pat vote is not relevant in Florida. This is very unlikely to be the case for a generation or two. No politician is going to give up Florida so a few guys can enjoy Cuban cigars. Then consider the political power of the US non-Cuban cigar market, big business with big lobbying resource.

Additionally the Helms–Burton Act makes it very hard to reverse current position.

Finally consider Cubas history with the non-aligned pact. A lot of track record against the US.

It is not that any of these points can't be argued it is just that these decisions are made by politicians who need to please the majority regardless of right or wrong.

All just MHO of course.

[tippexx]

So what your saying typpexx is if and when the embargo is lifted cuba will still have years on their hands to start rolling cigars for the high demand
the thing is though can they keep up with the demand.
One of the members said the americans are used to non cuban cigars thats only because it's hard to get and it's elegal too to smoke cubans.

What's keeping up with demand got to do with anything. The cigars are high value products, they would want them to stay that way not come down to NC levels. More people want Ferraris than Ferrari can keep up with but it doesn't effect sales.

The fields are more important than the rollers, but there would I believe be time to adequately train new ones .... and plenty of excellent Cuban rollers live in Miami.

[PeeJay]

Take it from me Tony, those Americans that want Cuban cigars have no difficulty getting them. Look at the prices on the American websites and you'll see a strong incentive for them to not bother, the price!

[TonyN]

So what your saying typpexx is if and when the embargo is lifted cuba will still have years on their hands to start rolling cigars for the high demand
the thing is though can they keep up with the demand .
One of the members said the americans are used to non cuban cigars thats only because it's hard to get and it's elegal too to smoke cubans.

[tippexx]

Cuba is running at under capacity at the mo Tony, the demand in China and emerging economies being matched by a downturn in demand elsewhere. To up production by 10/15% Cuba could probably do immediately without breaking stride.

But it won't work like that. If President Obama said tomorrow that the Embargo was lifted, it would still take several years for the politicians to work out the pros and cons and produce new trade treaties etc. Plenty of time for Cuba to gear up to any demand.

[TonyN]

I woulden't go as far to say i woulden't touch a cuban cigar for 5 years but personaly think the quality woulden't be the same
untill like you say the everything returns to a steady state.

[tippexx]

I think the plan is already in place.

No cigars into the 'grey' market .... into a legit USA market instead.

[rokkitsci]

Were the embargo to be lifted, I wouldn't touch a Cuban for at least five years.

They will be rolling up everything from tobacco leaves to donkey doo doo to try to fill the sudden overwhelming demand and prices will skyrocket. The excitement will eventually die down and conditions will return to steady state, but the initial surge is going to cause havoc.

migh too sense...

[TonyN]

Think you made a good point there Mo

[TJCoro]

Come and listen to me story about a man named Puro!

The Americans that want Cuban's get Cuban's.

Young chico JG is correct - yanks who want 'em most likely already get 'em. Hell, I wouldn't be surprise to learn that the US is already one of the largest puro markets. It seems every time I visit mis amigos americanos in the great land to the north, they have a better selection of puros than the Coros!

A few would try them initially but they will only get a share of what the world gets.

I agree...sorta'. I think yankee cigar lovers who never had the opportunity to try a fine puro will rush out and buy a bunch. But, with all the pent up frustration and exaggerated expectations, plus the premium price, many will be let down and eventually go back to the less expensive NCs they've grown to love. So, under this theory, there will be an initial spike is sales if/when the embargo is lifted, but it will eventually settle back to what it is now or be slightly higher.

The average American pallette is more suited to NC's anyway.

This is where we part ways, amigo. Just because the so-called "average american" has been restricted to enjoying NCs for the past 50 years doesn't mean they won't easily adapt to the wonders of a fine puro. In fact, I think they will become puro lovers like most of us, but this does not necessarily equate to a large increase in overall demand or higher prices Overall demand is a functions of several factor, not the least of which is price, variety, availability, and the percentage of the US market that already enjoy puros.

Remember, our yankee amigos have long been denied the right to legally purchase and enjoy one of the greatest pleasures in the world and instead, were forced to adapt to a world without love.... errr, I mean, puros. As a result, they have become quite experienced in the NC world and know their stuff. At the same time, NC producers have worked hard over the past 50 years to develop cigars that compete with the almighty puro. Today, they produce some very tasty cigars, many of which can hold their own against the above average puro and, in a few cases, rest comfortably on the top self of your massive unit along side your finest puros.


Of course....I could be wrong!


Boy, Bag Boy

[rascal]

I would say that if there was a sudden rise in demand the quality would go down or the price increase.
firstly to grow more tobacco the use of chemical fertiliser and pesticides would increase, farming methods would have to change. This would change the quality of the leaf.
The other way they could go is to increase the price of the cigars and produce the same amount making cuban cigars a much more exclusive product.

stock up now before there all gone !!

Some of these things have all ready happened like the tobacco being grown is more pest resistant which is why you see people talk about the change that happened in cigars taste

Plus the Cubans are already looking at expanding into China, there was a news item earlier in the year about them growing tobacco in China from Cuban seed.

A Cuban national being involved in a venture does not make it Cuba doing it. I presume your talking about robina. But have you noticed the amount of NC's with Cuban tobacco seed not the same as a Cuban